Line Moves Betting
Chasing steam moves is something that bettors have been doing since the early days of legalized Nevada sportsbooks. This trend has become significantly amplified with the proliferation of online sports betting. Chasing steam is certainly a successful strategy, but it is one that needs to be understood before being implemented.
- When people talk about taking advantage of line moves, it usually means tailing the sharp moves. Again, sharps are the players who win more than anyone else, so if a line move is deemed as “sharp”.
- Line movement that occurs later in the week is usually a result of the moves being made by the general betting public-the same group of people who keep the bookies in business. In other words, that’s not really a group of people you want to make a habit of emulating.
- Correctly predicting the direction the line will move and betting the opener will result in a winning record against the spread. NFL 53.03% NCAA Football 53.71% NBA 53.54% NCAA Basketball 53.75% LINE MOVEMENT VERSUS THE CLOSING POINT SPREAD By the time many gamblers place their wagers much of the value has been bet out of the line.
- Here is a look at what sports betting line moves can tell us. Understanding Line Movements. It is important to understand how many times the lines for a sports betting event can shift and why they move. While the initial line adjustments could be in response to the public money, that isn’t the only possible reason.
As a general rule, if you like the number on a favorite against the spread, betting it early is recommended due to the fact that most bettors prefer favorites and most line movements go against the “chalk” as the week goes on.
What is a Steam Move?
A steam move is a drastic change in the sports betting marketplace that occurs as the result of heavy betting action.
That action will often be spurred by one or more of the top sportsbooks and will dramatically shift the odds in the sports betting marketplace.
A steam move sees a large amount of money being wagered in a short time and signifies heavy betting action by professional bettors or syndicates (example at bottom of infograph). In most cases, multiple sportsbooks are hit with the same betting patterns, which create an industry-wide line move.
Steam moves are exclusively caused by professional high-volume bettors. The betting public, or “squares” as they’re colloquially known, simply don’t wager enough in a short amount of time to produce this kind of rapid movement. Public betting clearly has an effect on the lines, but these sudden moves will almost always be the result of wiseguy money.
An Example of Chasing Steam
Say you’re looking at a table of live NFL odds at a dozen online sportsbooks. Every shop on the board has the Pittsburgh Steelers as a -6 favorite over the visiting Cleveland Browns. As the odds update, one of the sportsbooks moves the line to Pittsburgh -7.
Not only has the line moved a full point in a matter of seconds, but the game has moved onto the key number of seven for NFL contests. Also, the sportsbook that moved the line is known for their larger betting limits and sharper lines. This is a steam move.
“Chasing steam” means betting the Steelers at -6 before the rest of the market adjusts. By going to another sportsbook, and locking in your wager at -6, you can guarantee yourself the best price before the move and one that will probably beat the closing line. Other sportsbooks will be quick to shift their odds to -7, so striking while the iron is hot is of the utmost importance.
This can be hard to do because many books will be almost instantly hit by sharps. Even the ones that don’t immediately take serious action will adjust their odds based on the rest of the market. Sportsbooks that are slower to move their lines are far more vulnerable to steam plays.
Betting with the Move
Is chasing steam always the right move? Not necessarily, but the fact that many offshore sportsbooks will limit players who continually chase steam should give you a decent idea of its potential profitability.
Picking the right side is a key factor when it comes to winning at sports betting, but it is even more vital to get the best price on your wager when compared to the closing line. The problem is that not all steam moves accurately predict future line movement.
Sharp bettors realize that their moves will be followed by a percentage of the betting public, and some decide to use this factor to their advantage. They may decide to heavily bet on one side in order to move the line in their favor, before then switching an even larger amount to the opposite side.
Blindly betting all perceived steam moves isn’t a sound strategy because it can be difficult to decipher what the move truly means. Some moves have more validity than others. In some cases bettors may get a better price with the opening number, and sometimes with the closing number.
However, if you can manage to beat the closing line at a top sportsbook, it’s almost certainly worth several additional percentage points on your return on investment. Depending on the sport and the number, beating the closing odds by a point or more provides a nice added advantage. Also, depending on what price you lock in, a steam move may also set you up with a terrific middling opportunity.
Putting It into Practice
Even with an understanding of steam moves, chasing steam is quite difficult long-term. In today’s age of internet-fuelled sports betting, there’s almost no delay, and most sportsbooks will adjust to a big move within minutes. Some books use betting software so that they can react automatically to such events.
A large bankroll and funds at a number of different online sportsbooks are must-haves for those wishing to chase steam. Essentially, this is line shopping on steroids. Players will need to have their eyes on the odds throughout the day, and must be able to act within minutes or even seconds. This is where funds across several online bookmakers can come in handy.
Another option might be using a local bookie. With this approach, you will often have more time in which to act as online moves can take a while to trickle down to the locals. That’s especially so with the old-school bookies who still get their opening odds from the day’s paper.
What Does It Mean When Betting Lines Move
Will Chasing Steam Get You Limited?
Yes, in a lot of cases. Some sportsbooks view steam chasing as a personal attack because it amounts to bettors trying to capitalize on slow line moves by sportsbook management. Chasing steam is an excellent way to draw attention to your account and have your betting account limited.
Not only are you usually getting a better line than most on a particular market, but because the sportsbook has to move the line in order to fend off big money plays from the sharps, they will be unable to offset the action of those chasing steam.
Solely betting steam plays is going to be a gigantic red flag to bookmakers, and may get your account noticed. This is even more likely if you’re wagering a large amount or the max limit available on your steam plays. Some bettors have reported being limited even with relatively marginal profits, such was the suspicion attracted by their betting patterns.
Playing at a reputable sportsbook is all the more valuable if you’re going to be chasing steam. Less-than-stellar shops have banned players for betting steam plays, and have fallen back on rules hidden away in customers’ terms and conditions to give them an excuse for voiding winnings. This penalty is unquestionably draconian, but it’s a risk that players must be consider when choosing a sportsbook.
Conclusion
Chasing steam is undoubtedly +EV, provided you can both take advantage of moves, and are reasonably accurate at predicting closing numbers. Such a strategy is hard to execute properly, and in the long-term it can end with significant limits being placed upon your account(s). Steam moves are important to understand, but still represent just one piece of the puzzle when it comes to handicapping sports successfully. Crucially though, chasing steam often ends with players getting the best price, and that’s half the battle when it comes to beating sports.
Author: Joseph Falchetti
If you want to take your skills from a good to great handicapper, there are several things you can do to achieve that. For starters, you can read all our Betting Tips pages. The second thing you can do is learn about money management . And the third thing you can do -if you have time- is watch and learn how point spread lines move and why they do so. Being on the right side of the line movement can be the difference between turning a profit or losing over the course of a season.
Sportsbooks are in the business of making money regardless of how you look at them. They want to ensure that they are turning a profit regardless of the result of a particular game. A sportsbook's worst enemy is the publics' side since the general betting public far outnumbers the 'sharps' or 'wise guys'. The amount of money bet from the public will almost always be more than the amount bet by sharps, which would lead the sportsbooks cheer for the opposite side. However, in some cases there will be more money coming in on a particular side from a few sharp bettors that outweigh the number of tickets from the betting public. This is referred to as 'sharp money' and can have a drastic effect on which way the line moves.
Equal Action
The sportsbooks main goal is to ensure that there is equal action on both sides of the game. This is how they make their money. By forcing bettors to pay vig for placing a bet with them, sportsbook are very rarely vulnerable to huge losses. Take this random basketball game for example; if there is $11,000 dollars bet on the Toronto Raptors to win $10,000 at -3.5 and $11,000 to win $10,000 bet on the Washington Wizards at +3.5, the sportsbook would profit $1,000 regardless of which side covers the spread.
That is the most ideal scenario for a sportsbook on any game. A not-so-ideal position would be if there was $20,000 to win $18,500 on the Raptors and just $3,000 on the Wizards to win $2,850. If the Raptors cover the spread, the sportsbook stand to lose over $15K on this game alone.
One-Way Action
Books are most vulnerable when there is lopsided betting action on one team. Depending on the final result, sportsbooks stand to either win or lose a boatload of money. For this reason alone, sportsbooks will often move the point spread line in football and basketball with the hopes of lowering the risk to them and evening out the betting action.
For example, if the Boston Celtics open up at -5 against the Miami Heat and bettors absolutely love the Celtics in this spot, they will be sure to pound that line hard and sportsbooks will have no choice but to move the line up to -5.5 in order to persuade some bettors to take the Heat. If the action continues to pour in on the Celtics, the line will likely rise again to -6. Heat bettors who waited it out and prefer that extra point of security will now begin to bet the Heat, and the action will start to even out. At least that's what the books hope for.
Something to keep in mind is that the amount of betting action on a particular game will be the determining factor on which direction the line moves. The amount or the timeframe in which the line moves will always vary between sportsbooks because of two main reasons. The first being the amount of action the book is receiving on each side and the second being the risk the book is willing to take on a game.
Line Moves Betting
The best sportsbooks in the world and the ones that makes the most money are the ones that move lines as quickly as possible and keep the action as balanced as possible. Staying ahead of the game is a crucial factor as sportsbooks try and stay in business.
Line Moves Sports Betting
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